Warning: Following my trades may be hazardous to your financial health. See Disclaimer.

Thursday, June 14, 2012

To Follow Or Not To Follow

Over the years I've followed a few services, blogs, and traders via Twitter.  I can tell you eventually I stopped following them one by one, without exception.  The reason I stop following has been that they caused my demise in one way or another.  Then why follow?

Currently I've been following The_Real_Fly and TraderFlorida because they've been impressive.  But as I've posted many times, The_Real_Fly has gone from 20% YTD return down to -5%, and now probably somewhere around 10%.  Have my portfolio got hit in the process?  You bet.

But the real issue is confusion and added stress.  Think about it.  If my trading signal says sell, but The_Real_Fly is 92% long, would I be less aggressive in shorting?  Yes, I would, out of respect and fear.  If then the market goes against me and rallies hard, how would I feel?  Double whammy:  on the one hand, I incur loss on my short positions; on the other, I feel I miss out on the "Fly" bandwagon while he does his best taunting his "enemies".   It's an awful feeling.

Right now TraderFlorida is short and The_Real_Fly is long.  My signal is about to turn from sell to buy.  What should I do?   So far TraderFlorida has a more consistent track record, but I've only followed him since 2 months ago.  And he's only 10% short.  The_Real_Fly has been suffering from giving it all back, but now could be the time he regains his losses.  And he's over 90% long.  Is this complicated or what?!

The best scenario is if my own signal agrees with the people I follow, but it only happens once in a while and I'd be subject to the aforementioned dilemma the rest of the time.

Tune out the noise -- yeah, only if you're confident with your own trading system.  I am still learning and in search of the Holy Grail  in the realm of trading, even though I know it does not exist.

No comments:

Post a Comment