Warning: Following my trades may be hazardous to your financial health. See Disclaimer.

Friday, February 10, 2012

Leading Indicator, or Not?!

What's wrong with this picture?

The proprietary leading indicator I paid for has prevented me from swinging long since last May.  In fact, I have been short.  It's amazing I am still hanging.  Without any discretion, I would have been wiped out by now having been in triple bear ETFs all this time. Mean while, the market has had its strongest October and January in years.  It's been taunting to say the least, not to mention opportunity cost.  Obviously SPY 137 is the last straw.

Mean while I've betrayed my long time trustworthy, albeit trailing, indicator, which has yet to show any sign of slowdown since December.  This is the simplest investment guideline:  Stay long as long as the 10 day EMA is above the current $BPCOMPQ reading.  I'd have done well had I stuck with this rule.  I tried to be cute, and surely it backfired, big time.   Learn from my mistakes.  All leading indicators are potentially hazardous to your financial health.

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