Don't tell me you don't follow any particular good trader(s). Even if just for fun, we all do. I follow Dr. Fly because his blog is amusing to read and he posts his positions for all to see, even if it means making a fool of himself. And he manages real money in the millions, albeit mostly other people's money.
Through February, his year-to-date return was north of 17%. So I took his trades even more seriously. Although he's mostly in cash, since then most of his odd trades have been bomb shells after another, with the exception to TIF: VXX, CPST, ALJ, and yesterday, QCOR. Being bearish since last summer, of course I got more aggressive on VXX than I otherwise would, with Dr. Fly onboard. CPST was in my IRA way before he got in. And QCOR which he bought yesterday, is down over 6% overnight due to earnings. At this rate, his year-to-date return will revert to mean, say, 7%, just for argument's sake. And I would participate his demise in the process by following him. Even for a token trade, a 6% down in less than 1 day is still painful.
This experience also illustrate another trading phenomenon, bagholding. That's a sucker behavior. That's when you don't get in because you have doubts, are afraid, and have little faith. It's not until a miracle (e.g. a parabolic move) is shown to you do you become a believer and finally get in. But by then, you got in with the dumb money and became a bagholder, as all the buyers have left the trade. Sometimes when I am in a state of denial, I'd attribute this to the art of jinx. LOL.
I am writing this pointless musing as the market continues to froth higher. SPY is up .6%, 20 cents from making a new high, while I continue to hold inverse ETF's.
UPDATE: Dr. Fly's new post, validating my claims.