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Thursday, March 01, 2012

Spot On

Well, not quite but it's been a while since I had the feeling of being right.  Yesterday I mentioned that we'd likely to have an "inside day started with a gap up" and that was what we had today, except the inside day wasn't a "small" one as I had imagined  -- I was hoping for a Harami candlestick pattern for a trend change... Today I also felt good about my sublime timing in VE as it gapped and run north of 15% today.  Despite further damage to my overall bearish positions today, my SPY day trade shorts went pretty well with 100% trades being profitable.

Yesterday, the bearish engulfing served as a warning sign for the bulls, especially in the face of better than expected GDP.  Yesterday's money flow of (-$6,170) on DJ US TSM block trades should also raise some eyebrows.  The $BPCOMPQ is nearing crossing over its 10 day EMA.  Disappointing economic data such as the durable goods orders from 2 days ago and the ISM Mfg Index today should be of concern as well.  The bulls may rightly argue that it is bullish that the market continues to grind up despite the bad news.  There is no point for a counter argument.  Opportunities for the bears kept presenting themselves, but each time was foiled by the bulls.  But one of these times the bears will get their way... Now the European LTRO is behind us, the bears have better odds.  Come on, bears!

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