Warning: Following my trades may be hazardous to your financial health. See Disclaimer.

Monday, April 09, 2012

Death of The Proprietary Leading Indicator

I did not receive the weekly update of the proprietary leading indicator over the weekend.  I guess that's the end of the 6 month subscription with the devil.  I wasn't contacted regarding the expiration of subscription, nor was I solicited for renewal, for that I was grateful.  At least there existed some humility given the utter disservice of this indicator to its subscribers.  It was fired and despiced.  I can finally have closure with this nightmare -- its  messing with the psychology of my trades over the last 6 months.  I would like to remember this expensive chart as souvenir.  A trophy reminder of an indicator that no indicator in the world could have been worse off.

With that behind me, let's look at today's pent up action on the aftermath of the poor job report issued over the long weekend.

The SPY daily chart still looked bullish in an orderly uptrend.  All that bearish sentiment over the weekend resulted in a mere 1.2% correction.  The bulls have really been spoiled, crying and lamenting over nothing.  During the day, SPY even rallied and filled 50% of the red gap before retreating.  It finished off the low, despite the sell-off into the close.  You can see on the daily chart below that that both the horizontal and trend line supports still hold.  Now the "phantom bar" in today's candle showing the phony HOD at 139.84 is thought provoking. Normally, a phantom bar is used by the institutions to signal a target.  But with the finish today, I can't help but wonder if that phantom bar purposely displayed a gap fill and thereby giving an all clear signal for continued down move.  We shall soon see.

As per my intraday blog post, the VXX 60 minute chart is encouraging.

Elsewhere, the $BPCOMPQ confirmed the sell signal today, joining the rank with BuyDontHold.

Someone observed over Twitter today that "90% of the bloggers turned bearish over the weekend".  From the contrarian point of view, that's not good for the bears; but yes I am bearish as well.  I am holding 1/3 of the inverse ETF's (SH, SDS, SPXU, VXX), on the other hand I might kick myself later but I also entered GLW, FTK, GSVC, and AONE longs today as hedges.

UPDATE: I might add that the Investors Intelligence sentiment spread is 31.2 (52.7 vs. 21.5) per http://www.schaeffersresearch.com,  getting a bit too bullish.

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