Warning: Following my trades may be hazardous to your financial health. See Disclaimer.

Tuesday, April 03, 2012


The Fly put it well today regarding his perspective on the market these days:
I find myself living in a virtual world, where up is down and bad is rewarded with awards. It’s real easy to get sucked into the rabbit hole of negativity and it is slippery indeed. I try to remind myself that the market isn’t interested in trading lower.
I expressed something of the same essence a few days ago on "Market Most Often Does The Opposite", where I mentioned:
  • Don't do the right thing.  America is bankrupt, and the rest of the world is in recession.  But don't get out of the equities, because the Dollars will continue to be printed and the banksters will continue to fleece the tax payers till the end of the world.  And when the world do end, nothing really matters.  So stay away from doom and gloom.
  • Do the opposite of what you think and want.  Until you admit yourself into the psychiatric ward, this should work.
As I have hinted in my own words, I can't fade myself like The Fly can.  He is 97% long now, on the other hand, I am still holding inverse ETF's albeit I've cut it down to 1/3.  It's humbling to know just how much more one still must learn to attain  the mastery of trading.

The market continues to chuck along in favor of the bull, as always. $BPCOMPQ's buy signal isn't showing any sign of slow down.  Volatility stalls.  As seen in the daily chart of TVIX below, it is probably the worst thing it is doing -- consolidating.  I'd rather see a move down for a possibility of a double bottom, or a strong bounce to 13.50 area to back test the break down.  This consolidating is not only frustrating, brings nothing to a closure, but also ushering subsequent continuation -- to the down side!  Same story with VXX.

The one thing hopeful is that the consolidation at the rectangle target, if it can hold a bit longer, will present a strong positive MACD divergence that the market will have to address.  Speaking of hope, Buy-DON'T Hold reiterated its neutral position (not long!).

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