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Saturday, April 21, 2012

Don't Overstay The Flagging Welcome

OK, the sell signal is still on.  The market is holding up, but the leaders are falling one by one: GOOG, AAPL, IBM, CMG, etc.  Even PCLN is showing a bit of weakness.  The inverse ETF's are all flagging, examplified by the TZA daily chart, but all others are flashing cup with handle patterns as well.  But the bears have better make a move soon or the flags are going to turn into a channel!!




Else where, the social media stocks are taking it to the chin:  GRPN, YELP, and ZNGA specifically.  They are obviously rotated out.  Strangely, however, the social media ETF, SOCL, is holding up surprisingly well.



ZNGA just looks plain horrific. Down 42% in 2 months.  I took loss on one half already. Still holding the other half, which is currently down 20%. Ouch!  This is the likely outcome when you flock with the herd and follow the hype.  But with Facebook going IPO in June, it wasn't hard to bite the bait.  Just 300 shares but still painful.  Currently it's sitting exactly at the 200 week EMA at 9.27.


GRPN is has reached my favorite 123.6% overshot level exactly. But this is a falling knife. And given all the recent failed long setup viz ZNGA, SPRD, etc. I should get the message from the market by now and step aside.

YELP is not as ugly as the other two, but still down 27% from the high in less than a month.  I did well selling into the strength while Dr. Fly gave back the entire 50% move without selling a share.  I did end up accumulating 200 shares since the down trend as I nibble a few here and there.  It is sitting right around its 200 week EMA.

This week's story has to be AAPL, with dramatic whipsaw including a best 1 day rally ever.  TraderFlorida called his shorts almost impeccably except the morning when he was trapped in his dentist's office. LOL.  He's got lots of guts to short AAPL the day after the biggest rally. But on the other hand, when you have the size of fund he has and has been on a streak, it's a different story.

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